Retention & PMF

17 months observed

The one measurable piece of PMF — retention pull — with its uncertainty. Everything else about Φ stays a labeled hypothesis.

Monthly revenue retention

Posterior mean97.4%ex-post

90% CI [90.6%, 100.0%] — the band narrows as months mature.

Φ₀ falsifiability

PASS

Ex-ante band [83%, 100%] · realized 97.4%. The prior held — a useful ex-ante signal.

Φ sub-factors — hypothesis only

Listed, never quantified. A hypothesis-tagged factor may inform narrative but can’t drive an automated decision.

  • Habit / frequency of use
  • Breadth of adoption across the account
  • Switching cost / lock-in
  • Word-of-mouth pull
  • Expansion intent
  • Competitive displacement risk